The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...

Einleitung in die Ermittlung der Übernahme- und Fusionswahrscheinlichkeit für Akquiseziele in der deutschen Stahlindustrie auf Basis von Finanzkennzahlen -- Methodisch-konzeptionelle Grundlagen zu den eingesetzten Arbeitstechniken und Hypothesen zu Übernahmen und Fusionen -- Identifizierung...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...