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S&P 500 Index option-based volatility indexes have untenable risk-return profiles. These volatility indexes are not … designed with consideration of important real-world risk characteristics of options and fail to represent volatility as a … cardinal characteristics of options on S&P 500 Index, central to designing viable volatility investment strategies, are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865881
We examine whether real-time return forecasts are valuable to an investor looking to allocate their portfolio across a wide selection of countries. We expand the Sum-of-Parts (SoP) method for forecasting stock returns to an international setup by adding FX returns as an additional component. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403620
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013420595
We build a parsimonious international asset pricing model in which deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve of a country measure the tightness of investors' capital constraints. We compute these measures at daily frequency for six major markets and use them to test the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122253
volatility variable, when included into the training sample, boosts the predictive power of the model significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966264
volatility variable, when included into the training sample, boosts the predictive power of the model significantly. -- CART …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636039
While the risk return trade-off theory suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional … volatility, the volatility feedback theory implies a channel that allows the conditional volatility to negatively affect the … expected return. We examine the effects of the risk return trade-off and the volatility feedback in a model where both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107127
While the risk return trade-off theory suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional … volatility, the volatility feedback theory implies a channel that allows the conditional volatility to negatively affect the … expected return. We examine the effects of the risk return trade-off and the volatility feedback in a model where both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107156
combined with the theory shed light on a risk-based explanation for the observed predictability. A preliminary test of this … risk. Using U.S. data, I find supporting evidence that oil price changes have significant effects on the second moments of … correlations. Based on the estimated second moments, I construct the time-varying empirical risk premia. My empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062104
Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental … Germany and the US. We find that the variance premium contains a substantial amount of information about risk aversion whereas … the credit spread has a lot to say about uncertainty. We link our risk aversion and uncertainty estimates to practitioner …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020862