Several recent empirical papers assert that the decision to disclose an earnings forecast shortly before the actual … dynamic model of voluntary disclosure, we show that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast reveals managers … decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast predicts earnings three years beyond the forecasted period, and that the …

Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

The "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose" [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual macroeconomic forecast in … forecasts to influence the JD forecast? Results show that there is no strong evidence of bias or inefficiency of the institutes …

betrachtet. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Reihe von Indikatoren für eine kurzfristige Prognose geeignet sind, daß aber eine Prognose … forecast horizons or for the prediction of turning points …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic conditions on inflation forecast disagreement … inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show … and professionals primarily depends on the current rate of inflation. -- forecast disagreement ; inflation expectations …

Do firms learn to forecast future business conditions after major structural changes to the economy? How long does it … distribution of market states, to test a Bayesian learning framework. As predicted, we find that Eastern firms initially forecast …