Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

for state-space models. Out-of-sample forecasts show that the forecast errors of the factor models are on average smaller … and the subspace factor model outperform the static factor model in most cases in terms of mean-squared forecast error …. However, the forecast performance depends crucially on the choice of appropriate information criteria for the auxiliary …

the subspace factor model rank highest in terms of forecast accuracy in most cases. However, neither of the dynamic factor … models can provide better forecasts than the static model over all forecast horizons and different specifications of the …

2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For … increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long … forecast horizon …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

we expect to be associated with the prevalence of the analyst walk-down forecast pattern. Based on a large sample of 50 … forecast bias involves various forces including a country's institutional infrastructure, and firm and analyst characteristics …