This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...

This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...

Die Corona-Pandemie hat weitreichende Folgen für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in der kurzen Frist. Diese sind angesichts der abrupten Unterbrechung ökonomischer Prozesse in ihrem Ausmaß schwer abzuschätzen. Zum einen gibt es für die Reaktionsmuster kaum historische Vergleiche, zum...

The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth...

The air for the economic upswing in Germany is getting thinner. We expect German GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and by 2.3 percent in 2019 after an increase of 2.2 percent in 2017. With capacity utilization already above normal levels at the current juncture, our forecast implies that the...

Die Corona-Pandemie hat weitreichende Folgen für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in der kurzen Frist. Diese sind angesichts der abrupten Unterbrechung ökonomischer Prozesse in ihrem Ausmaß schwer abzuschätzen. Zum einen gibt es für die Reaktionsmuster kaum historische Vergleiche, zum...

This paper compares different ways to estimate the current state of the economy using factor models that can handle unbalanced datasets. Due to the different release lags of business cycle indicators, data unbalancedness often emerges at the end of multivariate samples, which is sometimes...