Die Arbeitslosigkeit für die 176 deutschen administrativen Arbeitsmarktregionen (im Allgemeinen Arbeitsagenturbezirke) wird auf einer monatlichen Basis prognostiziert. Wegen ihrer geringen Größe existieren zwischen diesen regionalen Einheiten starke räumliche Interdependenzen. Um diese und...

It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analysing the dynamic adjustment...

In analyzing the disparities of the regional developments in the volume of employment in Germany, in the recent empirical literature so called shift-share-regression-models are frequently applied. However, these models usually neglect spatial interdependencies, even though such interdependencies...

In analyzing the disparities of the regional developments in the volume of employment in Germany, in the recent empirical literature so called shift-share-regression-models are frequently applied. However, these models usually neglect spatial interdependencies, even though such interdependencies...

The regional employment growth in Germany is characterized by huge disparities. Whereas institutional factors might explain the disparities of employment growth between nations, they can only account for a minor fraction of the regional employment growth. Instead the sectoral structure of...

Korean Abstract: 창업의 고용효과는 창업기업의 신규 일자리 창출효과를 나타내는 직접 효과와 활발한 신규진입이 산업 전반에 파급하는 장기적 효과인 간접효 과로 구분된다. 그간 창업의 장기적인 간접고용효과는 국내에서...

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...