We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...

Momentum trading strategies have been proved to be profitable in different asset classes and on various national capital markets in the past. However, there are some indications for eroding momentum profits. Based on the theory of gradual information distribution on capital markets and the...

We examine the impact of COVID-19 (C-19) pandemic on global equity markets by constructing novel infection indices. Our results show that the impact of prompt and large-scale policy interventions is ambiguous yet statistically significant. However, in this equivocality, the impact of global...

Recent evidence shows that U.S. price momentum strategies suffer tremendous losses in times of highly volatile market recoveries. We extend the existing literature by analyzing the performance of both price and earnings momentum portfolios across different market states. For our German sample,...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...