scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission …'s Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts conducted by the London-based institute Consensus Economics. The …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly … been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation … future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and …