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Although it has been well established that financial volatility is related to news and macroeconomic shocks, there has … consol returns since 1729 and identify a greater-than-50% decline in volatility from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815 … volatility. Underlying political stability under Pax Britannica seems to be a more likely explanation, however …
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Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...
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