Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...

Thou living ray of intellectual fire -- An idea in the rough -- Some kind of an education -- Living up to the model -- Tortuous economic intuition -- The money wars -- Global reach -- Stagflation -- Changing fields -- What do traders do? -- Exploring general equlibrium.