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price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought … the bubbles in the sample. Therefore, the paper suggests a combination approach of different bubble indicators which helps … to account for the uncertainty around start and end dates of asset price bubbles. Additionally, the paper then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300629
The econometrics literature contains a variety of two-sided tests for unknown breakpoints in time-series models with one or more parameters. This paper derives an analogous one-sided test that takes into account the direction of the change for a single parameter. In particular, we propose a sup...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003226093
asset pricing in line with rational bubbles. We show that the response of the excessive stock price component to a monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526074
This paper examines how monetary expansion causes asset bubbles. When there is no monetary expansion, a bubbly asset is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014467370
Recent work finds evidence that the volatility of the U.S. economy fell dramatically around the first quarter of 1984. We trace the timing of this so-called "Great Moderation" across many subsectors of the economy in order to better understand its root cause. We find that the interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101654
Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464407
This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy significantly Granger-causes stock market confidence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935254
This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy significantly Granger-causes stock market confidence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093897
The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813273
Galí (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises interest rates in response to bubbles can paradoxically lead … to larger bubbles. This comment shows that a central bank that wants to dampen bubbles can always do so by raising … argue Galí's model contains additional equilibria in which more aggressive rules dampen bubbles. We show that for these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349449