Alle Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen gehen von einer starken Schrumpfung bei gleichzeitiger Alterung der Bevölkerung in Deutschland aus. Derartige Schätzungen sind möglich, weil die demographische Entwicklung der kommenden Jahrzehnte zu einem erheblichen Teil durch Entwicklungen der...

In seinem Kommentar nimmt Eckart Bomsdorf, Universität zu Köln, Stellung zu den Rentenreformplänen der Bundesregierung. Seiner Meinung nach enthält der Gesetzesentwurf sowohl Positives, z.B. bei der Erwerbsminderungsrente, als auch Widersprüchliches, z.B. bei der sogenannten Rente mit 63....

Population aging will be a major determinant of long-run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic in some countries and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and...

Population aging will be a major determinant of long-run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic in some countries and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and...

For decades, pension systems were based on the rising revenue generated by an expanding population (demographic dividend). As changes in fertility and longevity created new population structures, however, the dividend disappeared, but pension systems failed to adapt. They are kept solvent by...

The Croatian system of old-age provision comprises a traditional public pay-as-you-go scheme and a mandatory funded scheme ("second pillar") that will provide increasing amounts of supplementary pensions to those entering retirement in the future. Due to the continuing economic crisis, the...

In this paper I use a multi-period OLG model to study how a demographic shock is distributed among different generations. In particular, I investigate whether a funded pension system allows for a smoother adjustment than an unfunded system. The results suggest that the answer to this question...

This paper investigates the fiscal pressure from demographic change in relation to the labour marketspace for fifty countries that cover 75% of the world population. The pressure-to-space indicator ranks Poland, Turkey and Greece high. Apart from Turkey and India, developing countries rank low...

Ýmrohoroðlu, Ýmrohoroðlu and Joines [1995, A life-cycle analysis of Social Security, Economic Theory, vol. 6, 83-114] show that the optimal replacement ratio of the payas-you-go public pension system in the US economy amounts to 30%. We extend their analysis to a model that 1) replicates the...

The aim of this paper is to analyze private pension systems financed by pay-as-you-go, with a focus on the pension funds of the Italian Professional Orders. The research centres on the financial and demographic risks and on their impact on the future evolution of the fund. It presents a model to...