the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. We show that returns to investment … that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of … returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these …

over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. Using panel data we show that the returns to investments in … agriculture in India and Ghana, small and medium non-farm enterprises in Sri Lanka, and schooling in Indonesia fluctuate …-relevant aggregate shocks, focusing on rainfall and price fluctuations. We also obtain lower-bound estimates of confidence intervals of …