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Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs : an application to Brexit

Vandenbussche, Hylke; Connell, William; Simons, Wouter - 2019

We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages. It includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination, (3) value added rather than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962330

Common Seasonal Features : Global Unemployment

Hylleberg, Svend; Engle, Robert F. - 2008

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014029581

What is the Globalisation of Inflation?

Altansukh, Gantungalag - 2016

This paper studies the globalisation of CPI inflation by analysing core, energy and food components, testing for structural breaks in the relationships between domestic inflation and a corresponding country-specific foreign inflation series at the monthly frequency for OECD countries. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982720

The Slowdown in Global Trade : A Symptom of a Weak Recovery

Aslam, Aqib - 2018

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928627

Five essays on international trade, factor flows, and the gains from globalization

Heiland, Inga - 2017

This volume was prepared by Inga Heiland while she was working at the Ifo Institute. It was completed in July 2016 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich. It comprises five chapters addressing one or more aspects of international trade and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011736433

Pandemic-induced increases in container freight rates : assessing their domestic effects in a globalized world

Pulido, José - 2022

The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the international transportation industry, causing container freight rates to reach record highs from late 2020 and into 2021. I evaluate the dynamic effects of the observed increases in container freight rates all around the world on the domestic inflation, real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013460109

Global Inflation Forecasts

Kearns, Jonathan - 2016

inflation improve the accuracy of forecasting regressions that include survey forecasts of country inflation. In-sample fit and … out-of-sample forecasting exercises suggest that forecasts of global inflation generally contain more information for … forecasting country inflation than do lags of global inflation. However, for most countries, lagged or forecast global inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982775

What has caused global business cycle decoupling : smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?

Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia - 2017

According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095

Global financial cycles since 1880

Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019

We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987786

Global financial cycles since 1880

Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019

The authors analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, they analyze the dynamics of co-movement and compare recent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992406

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