This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates...

Global economic activity is surrounded by increasing uncertainties from various sources. In this paper, we focus on commodity prices and estimate a global commodity uncertainty factor by capturing comovement in volatilities of major agricultural, metals and energy commodity markets through a...

We estimate a global commodity uncertainty factor by capturing comovement in volatilities of major commodity markets through a group-specific Dynamic Factor Model. Then, by computing impulse response functions using a Structural VAR model, we find that an increase in the common commodity price...