The lack of anticipation of a worldwide disruptive event such as the spread of the COVID-19 combined with the breakdown of market mechanisms for the most essential products needed to fight the disease left the governments of many countries unsure of how to react and, often, constrained their...

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...