geographic complexity and evaluates its impact on systemic risk and how both the 2008–09 global financial crisis and the 2010 … complexity materially reduces systemic risk and enhances stability, as it encourages banks to take on more diversified risks … complexity affects systemic risk via its impact on bank size, activity diversity and foreign expansion strategies. Regardless of …

estimates of ‘GDP-at-Risk’, a summary measure of downside risks. In turn, this yields time-varying estimates of higher GDP … GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign sources, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail …

, consistent with an increase in systemic risk. The data suggest that the FSB is not yet achieving its goals …

of systemic risk measurement and regulation. The thesis is informed by what I consider two key lessons from the recent … uncertainty operate in this context: i) uncertainty regarding how best to define and measure systemic risk; (ii), dynamic … cannot compute the probabilities of outcomes that would be necessary for informing rules regarding systemic risk measures …