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We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305726
Currency carry trading presents a widespread trading strategy and refers to the forward premium puzzle. Investors borrow low-yielding currencies with the aim to invest in high-yielding ones in order to benefit from arbitrage opportunities. This implies that a one-to-one relationship does not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868519
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010220043
How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310676
Since end-March, 10y US yields have increased 76bp, more than in other G7 markets (Figure 1), and a dollar index relative to major currencies indeed weakened 7.5%, (13.8% relative to developing countries, Figure 2). In this note, we argue that the narrowing of the US current account (CA) deficit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155980
Official holdings of US dollar reserves are partly invested outside the United States. These offshore investments do not strictly speaking finance the US current account, but do support the US dollar. Offshore holdings grow fast when intervention is large
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092677
Tiny changes in the American monetary policy can have dramatic effects on the rest of the world because of dollar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008648332
This paper estimates global bad and good uncertainties from monthly data on industrial production from a large set of countries. Bad and good uncertainties have opposite effects on macro aggregates and stock returns. An increase in bad uncertainty adversely impacts both, while an increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000053
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity framework for global wealth and happiness represented, respectively, by FTSE All-World … happiness significantly mitigate wealth volatility, and daily wealth returns positively affect the changes in happiness … sentiment. These findings reveal a spiral transmission in daily changes in happiness sentiment and global wealth volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817718
for each country, and investigates the spillover effects on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility across … on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility. We find that that the effect of developed … idiosyncratic volatility continues when we utilize various economic, financial, and political risk factors as controls, as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406077