How do commodity price movements affect sovereign default risk over the long-run? Using a novel dataset covering 41 countries and 42 raw commodities, we take a comprehensive long-run view to shed light on this so far understudied relationship between commodity risk and sovereign risk across 150...

This paper uses annual data to study the interaction of consumer and commodity prices in 15 economies over the period 1850-1913. We find that consumer price inflation in all 15 countries co-moves with a broad measure of changes in commodity prices. Consumer prices comove most strongly with...

This paper focuses on emerging markets government bonds issued in local currency with different maturities. Foreign investors face interest rate, currency, and credit risks. We consider the entire term structure of carry trade returns and find that, while the default premium does not contribute...

This paper applies the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness methodology on sovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs) to estimate the global network structure of sovereign credit risk. The level of credit risk connectedness among sovereigns, which is quite high, is comparable to the connected- ness among...

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets’ integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is shown empirically that this relation depends on country’s financial risk. Financial risk indicates a country’s...

The enormity and pervasiveness of the global economic crisis that began in 2008 makes it relevant to analyze the circumstances that can explain this catastrophe. This will also provide clues to the appropriate remedial measures needed to prevent future occurrences of similar developments.The...