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This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and examines the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of … international stock markets. Our empirical results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility … improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime …
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for each country, and investigates the spillover effects on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility across … on the country-level stock market idiosyncratic volatility. We find that that the effect of developed … idiosyncratic volatility continues when we utilize various economic, financial, and political risk factors as controls, as well as …
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Using the 2007-2009 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use an asset pricing framework with global and local factors to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings as...
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