Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on...

This paper analyzes several effects of FDI accruing to Textiles, Chemicals, Electronics and Machinery in China. Though the four sectors have contrasting production technologies and vary largely in trade patterns, the related Chinese exports and imports still follow a general trend: East Asia and...

This report analyses the broad risks associated with sectoral output disruptions both domestically and abroad, examining several exposure metrics. The results indicate that domestic shocks generally have larger sectoral impacts than foreign shocks. In most cases, foreign production disruptions...

This analysis attempts to offer a counter strategy to the idea of anti-globalization and de-growth that had flared up again since the COVID-19 crisis. All international forecasts expect for the year 2020 the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Countries which can afford it, run a...

This paper uses a dynamic CGE model to assess the intertemporal and spatial dimension of technology spillovers embodied in international trade within a climate and trade policy framework. Three are the main contributions of the study. First, to include endogenous factor-biased technical change...

This working paper draws on historical and contemporary data on tariffs, non tariff barriers, and transportation costs (for the United States and its major trading partners) to estimate the role of policy liberalization in US merchandise trade growth over the period 1980 to 2006. Both partial...

In this paper, we introduce our GDSGE framework and MATLAB toolbox for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with a novel global solution method. The framework encompasses many well-known incomplete markets models with highly nonlinear dynamics such as models on financial crises,...

The world will experience dramatic demographic change over this century. This paper examines the impacts of this global demographic change on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and sectoral levels in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. Using a detailed...

In 2019, President Trump called on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to depreciate the U.S. dollar, which, according to the IMF, is overvalued by between 6 and 12 percent. This paper uses an intertemporal general equilibrium model to explore what would likely happen if the...

The recent downward trend in the international energy prices, combined with the rapid transition in the national energy mix and widespread efforts towards national energy market liberalization have challenged the mitigation potential of the global fossil-fuel subsidy reform. In this paper, we...