, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the possibility that business cycle volatility might increase. Rapid … to unstable international capital flows. At the same time, business cycle volatility in OECD countries seems to have been …

factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with … estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation in the volatility of the global factor is overwhelming as there are … times in which volatility could be several times larger than its unconditional level (about ten times in the aftermath of …

We rely on a hierarchical volatility factor approach to estimate and decompose time-varying second moments of countries … business cycles, defined as a persistent decline in macroeconomic volatility across the main world economies. This decline in … volatility was induced by a reduction in the underlying global component, uncovering a new level of interconnection of the world …

examines annual data for 98 countries over the period 1961-2007 and finds that lower GDP growth volatility in the period …, suggesting that a reduction in volatility in this period was a more general development …

We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimate it with several … findings, the estimates suggest that global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation …

We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …

volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is shown empirically that this relation depends on country’s financial risk … risk, financial openness decreases output volatility, while, in countries with high financial risk, financial openness … increases output volatility. Extensive robustness checks confirm this result. -- Output volatility ; financial openness …

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment … fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of … in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their …