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We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Impulse response functions are then estimated using local projections. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012052956
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767984
U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225465
We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970177
We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014933
challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure …-frequency information. Pseudo real-time results show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045125
Legal opinion is divided on whether predicable sentences are a good thing for the administration of justice. In the case of cartel violations, both the United States and the EU have introduced guidelines for calculating fines that are intended to make fining decisions more transparent and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143320
This paper predicts the likelihood that a restaurant will close within the next one to two years using a Yelp restaurant dataset and a high dimensional gradient boosting machine called LightGBM (hereafter GBM). This model, trained on more than 20,000 individual restaurants, has an accuracy just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848600
forecast country inflation. This paper constructs forecasts of common (or 'global') inflation using survey forecasts of country … not at a longer horizon. Global inflation forecasts, and forecast errors, are correlated with survey forecasts and errors … forecasting country inflation than do lags of global inflation. However, for most countries, lagged or forecast global inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982775
This paper investigates whether Southern African Development Community countries that are vulnerable to changes in oil prices could instead substitute oil and petroleum products with biofuels and gas from within the region. A pooled mean group estimator was used to determine the impact of oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012003797