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We propose a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze the relationship between global factors and country-specific capital flow dynamics. Studying a global sample of 43 countries from 1994 until 2015, we show that global co-movement of macroeconomic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929696
Using a multi-level factor model, we estimate a global factor and country factors using the real macroeconomic variables of 71 countries from 1970 to 2018. The global factor successfully captures economic fluctuations in the world economy and primarily comoves with the business cycles of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236579
large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channel in a unified framework and quantify … losses in the value of cross-border asset holdings. Calibrated to German data, the model predicts the trade channel to be …. The transmission via the financial channel triggers a much longer-lasting recession relative to the trade channel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011800166
industrialized countries over the period 1978-2007. In recent decades, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly … share of less correlated sectors in GDP. Globalization - trend reductions in trade costs - exerts two opposing effects on … cross-border GDP comovement. On the one hand, greater trade linkages increase international transmission of shocks and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322746
We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211974
In this paper, we study the effects of structural shocks that influence global risk - the main factor behind a "global capital flows cycle" - and how risk, in turn, is transmitted to capital flows. Our results show that not all the risk shocks driving the global financial cycle have the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009141
countries. Second, both openness to trade and FDI do not have a favourable effect on income distribution in developing countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008490383
characteristics of FDI and FPI in terms of a trade-off between their volatility and profitability. Secondly, it provides a literature …Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) have been long considered as distinct and … phenomena. This paper analyzes the mutual relationship between FDI and FPI and attempts to answer the question whether they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071586
Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) have been long considered as independent forms … of international capital flows. This paper analyzes the mutual relationship between FDI and FPI and attempts to answer … describes the main characteristics of FDI and FPI in terms of their volatility and profitability. We analyze the long-run and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923365
and positive for short-run developments. Furthermore, trade of OECD countries and China lowers the degree of business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009785580