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This study is an endeavor to empirically examine the long run impact of financial globalization on output volatility in … for estimation purpose. The results of the study reveal that in overall Asia and Central Asia, financial globalization has … emerged as a significant and positive long run determinant of output volatility, whereas insignificance of financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012507135
We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...
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This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and examines the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of … international stock markets. Our empirical results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility … improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime …
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We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...
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