We investigate the role of global value chains in the declines of manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. during COVID-19. Specifically, we identify the role of global value chains by exploiting heterogeneity across industries in cross-country sourcing patterns and its interaction with...

This paper examined the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. The study employed an analytical approach reviewing the most recent literature COVID-19 global Statistics, oil price, policy responses and stock market. It was discovered that COVID-19 has spread to well over 200...

We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...

In this Global VEC study, we assess major economies' global influence through forecast error variance decomposition of real output growth. We find that the US has the greatest impact on an average foreign economy (9.8%), primarily via equity markets and interest rates. It is followed by the Euro...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...

With the aim to provide a detailed understanding of global financial cycles and their relevance over time, we analyse co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and interest rates across 17 advanced economies over 130 years. Using a time-varying dynamic factor model, we observe global...

The authors analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, they analyze the dynamics of co-movement and compare recent...

The U.S. could be the source of the global financial risk because it longs risky assets and shorts safe assets in the international capital market. This paper builds a stylized two-country model to highlight that when the developed country's risk-bearing capacity improves, it holds more foreign...