Bitcoin blockchain has grown into an active global virtual money network with millions of accounts.We propose a Sparse-Group Network AutoRegressive (SGNAR) model to understand the dynamics of its cross-border transactions. It describes the money flows of virtual funds, with a focus on the...

We report new evidence that the cryptocurrency market behaves as an independent asset class based on high-dimensional stochastic-volatility commonality tests against a basket of global investor sentiment proxies. Our approach’s novelty resides in employment of appropriate sources of risk and...

We describe the challenges of forecasting earnings in a globally interconnected marketplace, and we document inefficient use of information regarding foreign country exposures and expected country GDP growth at the consensus and individual forecast levels. A country's proximity to the US,...

This paper describes a quantitative, data-driven method to assess vulnerabilities in a range of countries. We provide country-level vulnerability indices which can be used to gauge the level of fragility at any point in time. In particular, our results suggest that in the run-up to the Global...

We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a contrarian predictor of...

In previous versions of our Value vs. Glamour study we have explored the historical performance of stocks based on their fundamental characteristics and quantified a value premium. Results have shown that over the long term, unpopular “value” stocks, those that are associated with companies...