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Globalization and international business cycle dynamics : a conditional GVAR approach

Binder, Michael; Offermanns, Christian J. - 2014

We examine the effects of increased international integration of both goods and financial markets on business cycle dynamics. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework for modelling cross-country spillovers in which the magnitude of these spillovers is an empirically determined function...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414228

Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); … - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794406

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2016

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991111

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219067

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Chris; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013325261

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones, Marco E. - 2021

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320078

What has caused global business cycle decoupling : smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?

Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia - 2017

According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095

A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model

Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020

observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790

Global or Country Business Cycles : Developed versus Developing Countries

Kim, Yun Jung - 2021

variables of 71 countries from 1970 to 2018. The global factor successfully captures economic fluctuations in the world economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236579

The G7 business cycle in a globalized world

Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016

, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802

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