It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book....

In setting monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee uses forecasts and other information to assess the current and future states of the US economy. Numerous studies have evaluated the Greenbook forecasts but did not determine why a forecast was made, what factors were considered or the...