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Rational bubbles and fractional integration
Kruse, Robinson (contributor) - 2008
hypothesis of a rational bubble. -- Fractional integration ; bubbles ; changing persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003672198
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Multiple Changes in Persistence vs. Explosive Behaviour : The Dotcom Bubble
de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro - 2012
Based on a method developed by Laybourne, Kim and Taylor (2007) for detecting multiple changes in persistence, we test for changes in persistence in the dividend-price ratio of the Nasdaq stocks. The results confirm the existence of the so-called Dotcom bubble around the last turn of the century...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108019
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Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia : Statistical Inference and International Evidence
Bollerslev, Tim - 2012
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115149
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Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia : Statistical Inference and International Evidence
Bollerslev, Tim - 2012
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109053
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Are International Equity Market Returns Predictable?
Chun, Sungju - 2009
The slope coefficient estimator in predictive regressions for stock returns is biased by a lagged stochastic regressor. There is also a spurious regression if the underlying expected return is highly persistent. This paper studies how the interactions between the two biases affect inferences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155218
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Nominal and real wages in the UK, 1750 - 2015 : mean reversion, persistence and structural breaks
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2022
This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013417630
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Signaling Asset Price Bubbles with Time-Series Methods
Taipalus, Katja - 2012
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111338
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Bitcoin – Is it a Bubble? Evidence from Unit Root Tests
Malhotra, Akash - 2017
Bitcoin is a decentralised cryptographic virtual currency scheme based on a peer-to-peer network that has attracted substantial number of users in recent years. In this paper, we investigate reasons behind its success and explosive behaviour in its exchange rates in 2013-14. We debate whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972996
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A leading indicator of house-price bubbles
Hviid, Simon Juul - 2017
dynamics of house prices in Denmark in order to identify emerging bubbles in due time. We develop a fundamentals-adjusted house … price index and apply the testing procedure of Phillips et al. (2015) to date-stamp house-price bubbles. The empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696535
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Riding the South Sea Bubble
Temin, Peter; Voth, Hans-Joachim - 2012
This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and that it invested knowingly in the bubble; it was profitable to ride the bubble. Using a unique dataset on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014073923