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We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from the European Union (EU) to the UK will decline by 25% after a hard Brexit. The absolute effects are largest in big...
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affected. One possible outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the EU … falling by 5% (Finland) to 43% (Bulgaria) taking into account the new tariffs and the elasticity of the trade response to this …
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threat to supply and demand linkages across the Channel. In a world of Global Value Chains (GVCs), tariffs might be more … adopts the same Most-Favoured-Nation tariff schedule as the EU, we compute the direct and indirect costs of these tariffs …, taking into account the EU-UK GVC-trade patterns. Tariffs would add almost 1 percentage point to the cost of manufacturing …
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