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This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
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We develop a model that permits the estimation of a term structure of both expectations and forecast uncertainty for … given data set of predictions from the SPF (or a similar forecast source) without measurement error. Our model captures … fixed horizon and fixed-event forecasts, and can accommodate changes in the maximal forecast horizon available from the SPF …
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