Theoretische Fundierung -- Ökonometrische Implikationen -- Untersuchungsmethoden -- Messung der relevanten Daten -- Stationarität und deskriptive Statistik -- Untersuchungsergebnisse -- Zusammenfassung, Beitrag und Ausblick.

Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...