We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ten industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is...

This paper examines the response of the national income shares accruing to different groups within the richest decile in the US to the occurrence of major systemic banking crises since the beginning of the twentieth century. The findings suggest that the impact of banking crises on the US top...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

This paper uses a time-varying parameter Markov switching model to measure linkages between business confidence, consumer confidence, and the state of the economy in the US and the UK. Falling business confidence significantly increases the probability that growth will subsequently fall. Rising...