This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is … not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than … in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the …

regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …

find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has … below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than … anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 …

unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years …

inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in a long panel to identify age structure effects in inflation, controlling for … increases. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US … disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising inflation over the coming decades …