We provide a critique of the methods that have been used to derive measures of income risk and draw attention to the importance of demographic factors as a source of income risk. We also propose new measures of the contribution to total income risk of demographic and labour market factors....

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

Correctly measuring individual dynamics in labour market behaviour has become increasingly important as research and policy attention has become more focused on the relationships between current employment opportunities and past experience. Surveys collecting information on labour market...

We compare three EU countries that have recently experienced substantial but very different reforms of their family support systems: Austria, Spain and the UK. The structure of these systems is different: Austria emphases universal benefits, Spain tax concessions and the UK means-tested...

Static microsimulation models are based on household micro-data and are designed to estimate the revenue cost and distributional and incentive effects of tax and benefit policy changes. They are invaluable for the design and evaluation of policy reforms. Static models allow us to hold constant...

We compare three EU countries that have recently experienced substantial but very different reforms of their family support systems: Austria, Spain and the UK. The structure of these systems is different: Austria emphases universal benefits, Spain tax concessions and the UK means-tested...

In this brief research paper, I explore patterns in intraday return and volume correlation between the S&P 500 and sector indices, as represented by minutely data from Aug. 23 to Oct. 1 for the SPDR exchange-traded funds. Notably, there is evidence of two previously unreported time-of-day...

This paper takes income distribution as a case study of the role of data in economics. After describing the transformation which has taken place with regard to the availability of data on income inequality, it discusses how the comparability of these estimates is brought into question by...

The paper studies probability forecasts of inflation and GDP by monetary authorities. Such forecasts can contribute to central bank transparency and reputation building. Problems with principal and agent make the usual argument for using scoring rules to motivate probability forecasts confused;...