In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run …

In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run …

In this paper we argue that both statistics and economic theory-based evidence largely indicate the absence of long run …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than … in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the …

interest rates, exchange rate growth, and inflation. We then decompose the Swiss long-term interest rate trend into various … decline in the level of inflation. Comparing Switzerland with the rest of the world, we show that while Swiss real interest … connection between inflation risk and the Swiss term spread, as well between relative inflation risk and the difference between …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in …

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is … not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …