We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

This paper documents new results that the ability of structural breaks to explain away non-stationary long memory in the forward premium weakens considerably with higher-frequency data. For daily data, removing structural breaks does not make non-stationary long memory stationary, contrary to...

The present study is an attempt to investigate the impact of an important event ‘Britain's exit from the EU, BREXIT, i.e., whether or not this even, whose referendum took place on June 23, 2016 with the result being reported in the early morning of June 24, 2016, resulted in causing any...

The classic 'logistic' model has provided a realistic model of the behaviour of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in...

The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an event-study approach. Both the time-series approach based...