Showing 1 - 10 of 7,901
Purpose: The aim of our paper is twofold. First, we examine the predictive ability of log bookmarket, dividend …-price, earnings-price and dividend-earnings ratios on the most recent data set of the strongest securities in the UK economy; unlike … the majority of the studies in this data set, our analysis is not limited on returns but further investigates dividend and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485885
/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast … business cycle, with expected returns increasing in recessions. We also find that, except for the period after 1945, dividend … yields predict dividend growth rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870101
We reaffirm the stylized fact that bond risk premia are time-varying with macroeconomic condition, even with real-time macro data instead of commonly used final revised data. While real-time data are noisier and render standard forecasts insignificant, we find that, with four efficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853051
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136656
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115149
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109053
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004721
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190297
of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We … define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the long run trend deviation between d and p. Using S&P 500 data for the … correlation with the risk free return component, and can discern if a low dividend state coincides with a low yield state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905483
This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we confirm recent results for U.S. data and find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086862