The UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) is likely to have a range of impacts, with trade flows likely to be most affected. One possible outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the EU. By examining detailed trade flows between the UK...

What would be the economic effects of the UK leaving the European Union on living standards of British people? We focus on the effects of trade on welfare net of lower fiscal transfers to the EU. We use a standard quantitative static general equilibrium trade model with multiple sectors,...

This paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration. We simulate two scenarios: 1) no agreement with reversión to WTO rules and no special treatment for migrants; 2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA)....

The UK is struggling to maintain a powerful global position against a backdrop of the British public having a longstanding difficulty in appreciating the benefits of EU membership. The success of the ‘leave' EU campaign has created huge uncertainty over future ties with the EU. The...

The Whitehall Briefing (leaked in January but only officially released this month) is not the last word on the potential long-term economic impact of Brexit, despite claims from others that it ‘proves’ GDP will be lower in ‘all’ scenarios. As the report itself says, it is only ‘draft...

The US is likely to be at ‘the front of the queue’ for a new trade deal with the UK after Brexit. This would require the UK to escape the constraints of the EU’s Customs Union and also be free to diverge from EU regulations. But if these two conditions are not met, many would question...

The decision of the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU) is unprecedented, especially considering the recent trend in the global economy toward economic integration. There is a multitude of research concerning the implications of economic integration; however, research in the...

This paper reviews a sample of studies on the long-term impact of Brexit on GDP and welfare for both the UK and EU economies. It considers only official and academic studies published before the end of November 2018. The paper highlights the very wide range of results, especially for the UK,...