This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional … suggest that the UK unemployment may be explained in terms of lagged values of the real oil prices and the real interest rate …, with the order of integration of unemployment ranging between 0.50 and 1. Thus, unemployment shows the characteristics of …

importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also …

The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation, and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than … in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

This paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find … that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear since inflation adjusts more rapidly when prices are further from the steady … unreliable in periods of macroeconomic stress, when inflation adjusts more rapidly. Our findings suggest a need for a more …

inflation. …

inflation. -- Path forecast ; forecast uncertainty ; simultaneous confidence region ; Scheffé’s S-method ; Mahalanobis distance …

small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …