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The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340611
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Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which overcomes the identification problems of models of unobserved components (UC) and ARIMA models and at the same time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in...
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Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course … recessions in the post-World War Two period. The spread also predicts future real GDP growth for the US, although the forecast …
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This Selected Issues paper summarizes estimates of the gap between current housing prices and their equilibrium levels in the United States. It examines short-term dynamics of price adjustment. Reflecting uncertainties about how to analyze underlying housing price trends, two approaches are used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245114
Remarks at United States Military Academy at West Point, West Point, New York.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366966
The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fiscal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010723591