This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...

This essay investigates the determinants of the growth performance of Africa. I start by illustrating a broader research agenda which accounts not only for basic economic and demographic factors, but also for the role of history and institutional development. After reporting results from...

To the layperson, the upward trend in European unemployment is related to the slowdown in economic growth. We argue that the layperson’s view is correct. The increase in European unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related because they stem from a common cause: an excessively...

This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita....

This paper develops a growth model in which the endogenous evolution of technological progress and wage inequality is consistent with the observed pattern in the United States and several European economies in the last two centuries. The model accounts for: a) the rise in wage inequality between...

We use portfolio theory to quantify the efficiency of state-level sectoral patterns of production in the United States. On the basis of observed growth in sectoral value-added output, we calculate for each state the efficient frontier for investments in the real economy. We study how rapidly...

Whether diversity or specialization of economic activity better promotes technological change and subsequent economic growth has been the subject of a heated debate in the economics literature. The purpose of this paper is to consider the effect of the composition of economic activity on...

This paper offers new tests of the `convergence hypothesis'. It first analyses the pattern of growth of measured inputs (human and physical capital conventionally measured by an inventory method) and shows that these tests sustain the hypothesis. On the other hand, when the pattern of growth of...

The changes in economic policy introduced in the UK after 1979 had a substantial impact on income distribution, unemployment and productivity growth. This paper brings together available evidence in an attempt to evaluate the welfare effects of the Thatcher reforms. The estimated impact turns...

This paper surveys the literature on external debt which has developed over the past decade. Initially this literature emphasized the intertemporal nature of the balance of payments, and reflected the view that balance of payments movements were an equilibrium phenomenon reflecting either...