Showing 1 - 8 of 8
The objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of three geostatistical approaches, ordinary kriging (OK), kriging with a trend model (KT), and indicator kriging (IK), to the assessment of uncertainty in estimates. This paper uses the OK and KT standard error and the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009458534
Complex designs are often used to select the sample which is followed over time in a panel survey. We consider some parametric models for panel data and discuss methods of estimating the model parameters which allow for complex schemes. We incorporate survey weights into alternative point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440012
Bayesian models for computer-aided underwriting have been developed for a major composite insurance company for two classes of commercial business: motor fleet and fire. The fire model produces a posterior probability distribution over a discretized dimension of risk, defined as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440142
Presents a latent trait and a latent class model for analyzing the relationships among a set of mixed manifest variables using 1 or more latent variables. The set of manifest variables contains metric (continuous or discrete) and binary items. For the latent trait model the latent variables are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440370
For a simplified structural equation/IV regression model with one right-side endogenous variable, we obtain the exact conditional distribution function for Moreira's (2003) conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test. This is then used to obtain the critical value function needed to implement the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009458256
Simulating the outcome of an intervention is a central problem in many fields as this allows decision-makers to quantify the effect of any given strategy and, hence, to evaluate different schemes of actions. Simulation is particularly relevant in very large systems where the statistical model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009458311
The idea of combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics has been a topic of debate in the operations research community for over a decade. Many authors have considered the potential benefits of such an approach from a methodological or practical standpoint. However, despite numerous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009480666
We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009484162