This paper formulates an empirical model to estimate the impact of endogenous new RTA membership on trade structure. The likelihood of new RTA membership is influenced by economic fundamentals such as country size, factor endowments and trade and investment costs. In a sample of country-pairs...

At present, Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have proliferated extraordinarily in the world trade landscape. Some trade diplomats are coming to recognize the greater significance of regional competition policy and law and are arguing that RTAs are likely to prevent to create anti-competitive...

This Research Report assesses the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the British Columbia economy from the vantage point of what is known as the negotiations enter the end phase of negotiations in the Fall of 2014. The assessment is based on a two-step process. First, the...

We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the...

This paper reviews the most significant recent developments in the theory of trade agreements. The paper offers an integrated approach to evaluating trade agreements, and uses the approach to present results on preferential and multilateral trade agreements. The paper identifies also several...

This paper shows how distance may be used to coordinate on a unique equilibrium in which trade agreements are regional. Trade agreement formation is modeled as coalition formation. In a standard trade model with no distance between countries, a familiar problem of coordination failure arises...

In the paper, we show how the potential signaling properties of trade agreements can explain two notable features of the international trading system. First, many trade agreements involve gradual, rather than immediate, reduction of trade barriers. We demonstrate how gradualism can serve as a...

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiation is searching for a “landing zone” – a set of compromises that will allow a deal to be concluded. We assess the potential impact of the TPP based on a “best guess” as to what the landing zone will look like, taking into account such...

This paper reviews the most significant recent developments in the theory of trade agreements. The paper offers an integrated approach to evaluating trade agreements, and uses the approach to present results on preferential and multilateral trade agreements. The paper identifies also several...

Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, national borders, and bilateral distance....