This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most...

[Introduction] Italy has the fourth largest stock of public debt in the world, the second highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7 group of advanced economies, and the highest debt service ratio in the G7. Although there is no strong evidence that public debt has a causal effect on economic growth...

This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal...

This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal...

IMF forecasts and the EU's Fiscal Compact foresee Europe's heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact's 60 percent target. We show...