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Weizsäcker (2010) estimates the payoff of actions to test rational expectations and to measure the success of social … qualities which may lead the formulated test of rational expectations to generate false positives. We rely on the true values of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009500719
rational expectations. A regression analysis formulates a straightforward test of rational expectations, which rejects, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218602
rational expectations. A regression analysis formulates a straightforward test of rational expectations, which rejects, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013325050
This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in laboratory experiments. One group of low informed subjects make predictions in sequence. In a matched pairs design, another set of high informed subjects observe the decisions of the first group and make predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003803102
We designed four observational learning experiments to identify the key channels that, along with Bayes-rational inferences, drive herd behavior. In Experiment 1, unobserved, whose actions remain private, learn from the public actions made in turn by subjects endowed with private signals of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924978
We designed four observational learning experiments to identify the key channels that, along with Bayes-rational inferences, drive herd behavior. In Experiment 1, unobserved, whose actions remain private, learn from the public actions made in turn by subjects endowed with private signals of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011789104
Most real world situations that are susceptible to herding are also characterized by direct payoff externalities. Yet, the bulk of the theoretical and experimental literature on herding has focused on pure informational externalities. In this paper we experi- mentally investigate the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003380747
In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al., 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343945
The paper investigates social-learning when the information structure is not commonly known. Individuals repeatedly interact in social-learning settings with distinct information structures. In each round of interaction, they use their experience gained in past rounds to draw inferences from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434567
As expectations are driven by information, its selection is central in explaining common knowledge building and unraveling in financial markets. This paper addresses this information selection problem by proposing imitation as a key mechanism to explain opinion dynamics. Behavioral and cognitive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928480