We develop a representative agent model of a production economy in order to explain the joint dynamics of house prices and equity returns. In a model generating costly business cycle fluctuations, we find that restrictions on housing supply have important implications for asset pricing. Together...

We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We find that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the...

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing...

In this paper recent developments in dynamic econometric methodology are used to explore the possibility of asset bubbles in the Northern Ireland housing market. This market is interesting as its house price trajectory is quite unlike any neighbouring market. In recent years it seems to have...

This paper first compares house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price dataset covering the period 1990- 2012. It is found that that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across...

The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian...

"Leaning against the wind" - a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate - has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness. In a recent paper Lars Svensson claims that this...

This paper first compares house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price dataset covering the period 1990- 2012. It is found that that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across...

"Leaning against the wind" - a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate - has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness. In a recent paper Lars Svensson claims that this...