In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner’s g prior. The main results are fourfold: First the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally...

Industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe evolved in a U-Shape during the first seven years of transition. The literature explains the initial collapse of industrial output as an inefficient outcome driven by supply side distortions that constrain the transition process. We show that the...