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We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we … introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the … hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483593
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010511548
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Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026398
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existence of substantial hysteresis effects of demand shocks. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011798221
enables hysteresis to be taken into account. Hysteresis is likely to show up in unemployment but it can also affect the … capital stock due to the existence of long investment cycles. In the proposed model, hysteresis may affect all the factor … be computed that are hysteresis-free and less prone to volatility. A complementary measure of the output gap that takes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011610168
focus on hysteresis. It is argued that hysteresis is a particular type of (rather than a synonym for) path dependency, and … equilibrium. Distinctions are made between stating (or assuming) hysteresis, characterizing hysteresis, and providing a model of … hysteresis, and concrete examples of appeals to hysteresis in macrodynamic analysis are used to illustrate these distinctions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213116
This paper argues for broadening the application of hysteresis to institutions, policy lockin, psychology, identity …, and economic ideas. Hysteresis is an element of historical processes, and the real world is historical. That explains why … hysteresis is pervasive and important. Hysteresis should be a fundamental building block of political economy. Expanding its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014327384
Hysteresis is treated as a history dependent branching, and the use of the classical Preisach model for the analysis of … macroeconomic hysteresis is first discussed. Then, a new Preisach-type model is introduced as a macroeconomic aggregation of more … realistic microeconomic hysteresis than in the case of the classical Preisach model. It is demonstrated that this model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211520